The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is much more than a regional geopolitical incident: it is a test of the resilience of global supply chains and a clear warning sign for businesses engaged in internationalisation.
In a context where maritime trade continues to account for the majority of global goods trade, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical chokepoints for energy, raw materials and international logistics1. When such a critical point slows down or comes to a standstill, the impact is not confined to the area concerned, but quickly spreads to costs, delivery times and industrial planning.
In recent years, the Gulf region has become increasingly important to the Italian economy. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia remain among the most dynamic markets for Italian-made goods and are also among the non-EU countries with the highest potential in the government’s priorities for export growth2. In this region, the Italian sectors with the greatest exposure and competitiveness remain primarily mechanical engineering, capital goods, fashion, jewellery and pharmaceuticals. It is precisely this growing integration, however, that makes Italian companies more vulnerable to the effects of any geopolitical or logistical instability in the region.
An Immediate Impact: Energy, Logistics and Costs
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz primarily affect energy flows, but the impact quickly extends far beyond oil and gas. When a passage of this importance gets clogged, transport costs rise, insurance uncertainty increases, pressure on delivery times rises and the risk of having to reschedule supplies and stock levels grows3. A localised crisis thus very quickly becomes an industrial and commercial problem even for businesses far from the Gulf.
The knock-on effects also affect less visible, but equally sensitive, supply chains. Fertilisers, for example, have returned to the spotlight because the Gulf is a key area for these flows4, and disruptions are already fuelling fears about availability, agricultural prices and food costs. Air and cargo traffic5 are also feeling the strain: airspace closures, route diversions and fuel price rises are putting further pressure on logistics costs and operational continuity.
The Issue of Chokepoints: a Structural Vulnerability
The Hormuz Strait incident brings back into focus an issue that many businesses have long underestimated: dependence on a handful of strategic chokepoints6. Waterways, straits, ports and logistics hubs account for a huge proportion of global trade flows and, for this very reason, can become systemic weak points. They are not merely infrastructure: they are geopolitical levers that can disrupt trade, prices and the reliability of supply chains within a matter of days.
For those who export or source goods from international markets, the question is no longer whether a logistics shock might occur, but how well prepared the company is to absorb it. The combination of geopolitical tensions, freight rate volatility, higher insurance premiums and longer routes highlights a structural vulnerability that can no longer be considered marginal.
Diversification: a Strategic Necessity
In this scenario, the message for businesses is clear: diversification cannot be limited to target markets alone. It must extend to suppliers, logistics routes, production areas, buffer stock, and the criteria used to assess business continuity and geopolitical risk. It is here that export strategy and supply chain strategy once again converge.
Rethinking the supply chain today means reducing excessive dependencies, building realistic alternatives, accepting in some cases a slightly higher cost in the short term. This, to safeguard continuity in the medium to long term, and integrating risk management tools into procurement decisions. It also means monitoring the quality of the supply chain over time, not only in terms of efficiency but also resilience7.
Supplier assessment and the development of a structured risk mitigation strategy therefore become decisive factors. They safeguard productivity, profit margins and the ability to serve foreign markets with continuity. Roncucci&Partners has years of experience in supporting businesses precisely in this transition: transforming the complexity of international markets into choices that are more robust, transparent and sustainable over time.
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- https://apnews.com/article/iran-hormuz-shipping-tolls-china-de5159966cde7de7b964b3c2c67eec07
- https://www.esteri.it/en/sala_stampa/archivionotizie/diplomazia-economica/2025/05/piano-dazione-per-lexport-italiano-nei-mercati-extra-ue-ad-alto-potenziale/
- https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-03-24-2026/card/insurance-costs-soar-for-ships-in-gulf-pu2Vj2WxX310sa5gcqk3
- https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-fertilizer-exports-farming-3b7c92d58dba0817c3aa8f1db47464b7
- https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/middle-east-conflict-tests-2026-air-cargo-outlook/814069/
- https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2024
- https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2025
